discussion of reform to the system was avoided, and Mr Trump’s platform promised no cuts and no increases to the retirement age. It is not just Washington inertia that makes reforms tough. In polling conducted by YouGov for The Economist, 71% of respondents believe Social Security spending should be increased, more than for any other category of government spending. In the same poll, 45% say it should be increased a lot. The proportion who wish it to be reduced is just 5%, slightly less than the share of Americans who believe that covid-19 vaccinations were used to microchip the population. A small clutch of politicians have more inventive proposals. Senators Tim Kaine, a Democrat, and Bill Cassidy, a Republican, want the federal government to borrow a huge sum, $1.5trn, to invest in risky assets like stocks. The proposal meets one of the long-held criticisms of the fund: that it has been much too conservative. Given its long-term liabilities, they argue, the fund could have taken far greater risk and reaped greater returns. But the proposal offers nothing to improve the finances of Social Security in the short, medium or even quite long term: Mr Cassidy and Mr Kaine propose that the new $1.5trn investment compound and grow in size over 75 years, after which its returns can offset the borrowing needed to keep Social Security running in the interim. The Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College estimates that would require the government to borrow $25trn. America’s public spending on old-age welfare, at 7.3% of GDP, is below the average in the rich world, and far lower than the double-digit figures in many European countries. But the American budget deficit is unusually large by rich-world standards, at almost 7% of GDP in 2025, compared with a little more than 2% among the other advanced economies. Some analysts are less worried about the exhaustion of the account. Not only has the regime been rescued before, but in some ways it is an accounting trick. Had the federal government decided to finance Social Security payments from general taxation in 1940, rather than hypothecating American payroll taxes for the purpose, the government might have run smaller budget deficits in the past (when the trust fund was growing) and
will run larger ones in the future (after its depletion). The net effect, they argue, is basically a wash. There is some truth to the fact that the fund is a book-keeping oddity: the trust is money the government owes to itself. But if the fund is an accounting fiction, it is nevertheless a legally binding one. When the fund is spent, payments will fall automatically. The politicians who control Congress between now and then will determine its future generosity, funding model and fiscal sustainability. The existence of the trust, and the hypothecated taxes which pay for it, provide some fiscal discipline. A direct connection between taxes paid by today’s workers and benefits received by today’s pensioners helps to ensure some element of intergenerational balance, so endless liabilities are not passed down to younger generations. But acting early to tackle well-known problems before they reach a crisis moment is not how Washington works. In the absence of that, expect yet more borrowing. ■ Correction (June 3rd): An earlier version of this article slightly misquoted Daniel Bunn; he said a proposed reform was “different”, not “difficult”, to the political calculus. Sorry. Stay on top of American politics with The US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important political news, and Checks and Balance, a weekly note that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters. This article was downloaded by zlibrary from https://www.economist.com//united-states/2026/06/02/americas-social-security-trust- fund-is-disappearing
California is on the cusp of its “Becerra era” What would Xavier Becerra’s leadership mean for America’s most populous state? June 4th 2026 On election night Xavier Becerra seemed to admit that his success in the primary to become California’s next governor was a surprise. “Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog story,” he told supporters in Los Angeles on June 2nd. The location of his celebration was apt: the Plaza de Cultura y Artes, near where Los Angeles was founded as a Spanish pueblo in 1781. If current trends hold, Mr Becerra could become the first Latino elected governor of California. The top two finishers in the primary, regardless of party, will face off in November’s general election. As The Economist went to press, votes were still being counted. California accepts mail-in ballots postmarked by election
day, so the process can take days, sometimes weeks. This year many undecided Democrats held on to their ballots until the final days of voting, perhaps prolonging the count further. As of June 4th it appeared that Mr Becerra and Steve Hilton, a Republican and former adviser to David Cameron, a former British prime minister, would advance. (Tom Steyer, the progressive billionaire running in third place, had yet to concede.) Because Democrats outnumber Republicans in California nearly two to one, Mr Becerra is overwhelmingly likely to defeat Mr Hilton in the general election. Early in the campaign Mr Becerra—a former congressman, state attorney- general and cabinet secretary—was a non-factor. A rather milquetoast establishment Democrat, he got lost in a field that included presidential and Senate wannabes (Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter), a billionaire activist (Mr Steyer), a has-been (Antonio Villaraigosa) and an upstart (Matt Mahan). Three factors explain his ascent. First is the downfall of Mr Swalwell. The Democratic congressman seemed on the cusp of pulling away from the pack in April when credible allegations of sexual misconduct annihilated his campaign and ended his congressional career. Around the same time, left-leaning voters grew anxious that the crowded Democratic field would split the vote, allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election. Polling suggests many of those voters then coalesced around the candidate they regarded as the safest choice: Mr Becerra. In the weeks since, his campaign has somehow turned affable cringe into an asset. “Competence is cool,” Mr Becerra told one reporter. “Having experience is hot.” (Some former Biden administration colleagues might observe that competence and experience are not the same.) Second, it probably helped Mr Becerra that his main Democratic rival was Mr Steyer, a former hedge-fund manager who spent more than $200m of his own money on his campaign. If these primaries offer a lesson, it may be that Californians remain wary of wealthy candidates trying to buy their way into office. (Saikat Chakrabarti, a tech millionaire, also failed to advance in the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi as San Francisco’s representative in Congress.) Last is California’s changing political geography. For decades San Francisco’s political machine dominated Democratic politics in the state and beyond. It nurtured the careers of Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom and Kamala
Harris, among others. But its grip on the Golden State has weakened in recent years as political power has shifted south, to a younger and more Latino electorate. The old guard either stayed out of the governor’s race or offered only tepid endorsements. Before Willie Brown, the former mayor of San Francisco and one of the city’s remaining kingmakers, endorsed Mr Steyer, he expressed dismay at the field. “They are boring people,” he told your correspondent earlier this year. “That’s the problem. There’s no life!” What kind of governor would Mr Becerra be? He doesn’t seem to know yet. His speeches consist largely of vague platitudes. On plugging health-care funding gaps, he says: “We’re going to move forward.” On keeping film production in California: “We have to fight tooth and nail.” When your correspondent asked what accountability should look like for cities and counties trying to tackle homelessness, Mr Becerra replied: “You can see it with your eyes.” Some voters don’t mind his equivocating. “It’s unrealistic to expect a lot of specifics,” said Susan, an Angeleno who attended a rally for Mr Becerra in Los Angeles last month. His experience, she said, “is enough for me”. When Mr Becerra has ventured into specifics, he has sometimes displayed a shaky grasp of the state’s problems. Asked during a debate how he would stop home insurers from fleeing California’s dysfunctional insurance market, he suggested freezing premiums. Insurers, though, are leaving in large part because a ballot measure passed in 1988 limits their ability to raise rates. Perhaps over the next five months Mr Becerra will unveil a proper agenda for tackling California’s problems, many of them self-inflicted. So far voters have rewarded him for his CV; they may eventually want to know his plans. ■ Stay on top of American politics with The US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important political news, and Checks and Balance, a weekly note that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters. This article was downloaded by zlibrary from https://www.economist.com//united-states/2026/06/04/california-is-on-the-cusp-of- its-becerra-era
Welcome to Evanston, where woke never died A Chicago suburb is paying reparations to African-Americans June 4th 2026 RAMONA BURTON, a 77-year-old resident of Evanston, a suburb of Chicago, remembers the first time she encountered blunt racism. When she was six or seven years old she visited her uncle in St Louis. The family were turned away from a restaurant because black people were not allowed to sit indoors. Before then, Ms Burton says, “I didn’t really know what prejudice was, because I had black and white friends.” Afterwards, she began to notice it. At school teachers treated black children differently, she says. Black families in Evanston lived in a more crowded, run-down neighbourhood. “Something’s wrong here,” she remembers thinking. In 2022 Ms Burton was among the first beneficiaries of a scheme set up by the city in 2019 to pay “reparations” to victims of racism. She received